No major Biden administration scandal? Having and keeping in place an obviously dementia addled president doesn't qualify? A President so addled that he had to be replaced via a threat to invoke the 25th amendment? If he was addled enough to be threatened then he should have been replaced and Harris should be the president right now. Her failure to do this ultimately disqualifies her for the Presidency. "Hunter Biden saga"? No, it's the Joe Biden saga in that he used his son as bagman for his nefarious money making scams. Have you looked at the content from the laptop? 700,000 Ukranians are dead because of this, doesn't that qualify as a scandal? Your article shows just how low the bar has gone on scandalous behavior.
You point out the obvious, Bravo. Election fraud via Hunter Biden denial is the most egregious (arguably worse than the Russia election meddling fraud)
I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone who doesn’t normally follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by this? In my opinion, to the average Joe it’s just not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this. I’m sorry to say it, but I’ve literally never heard of anyone raise the points you’ve made other than people who pay close attention or are general Fox News listeners. The average independent Joe in a swing state who doesn’t pay regular attention but votes consistently, and is evaluating the big picture, in my view, does not view this at the same level of scandal.
I am concerned that judging the economy on the basis of the term 'recession' misses what people are experiencing. I think most Americans are struggling and the DNC and aligned media are telling the public that things are fine and that they "don't understand how the economy works." It is not working for most of us.
Thanks Louis! I’d agree with that, hence why I rated the key partially false (despite the keys definition entirely being about us not technically being in recession right now).
I don’t see how you can say there is no scandal in the Biden administration. What about the blatant disrespect of our first amendment? That was a pretty big scandal. The president broke our first law of our land! How is he not being tried for treason?
Where the hell did Harris come from? We didn’t vote for her. But since the DNC is their own private company determined by the Supreme Court when they picked Hillary Clinton instead of the peoples’ pic of Bernie Sanders, they can do whatever they want. That doesn’t work for me or my country of We We The People!
I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone normal who doesn’t follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by these things? While the 1st amendment violations should be national news, it just hasn’t been. It’s not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this.
The way too many injured and dead (estimated numbers vary) from the vaccine requirements aren’t a scandal? Just because the MSM don’t report it doesn’t mean it’s unknown.
Same response as I made above, I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone who doesn’t normally follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by this? While it’s absolutely real and MSM hasn’t reported any of it, it’s just not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this.
It's like Germans during WWII believing the death camps were just a rumor. But worse, because orders of magnitude more are affected, and not just certain groups. Democide intended for all but the "elite".
As We Stare Down the Precipice, Final Ruminations -- On the eve of momentous change...what lies ahead of the turning point? Chaos or salvation? – Simplicius - Oct 30, 2024 – VERY GOOD
Thanks for providing this thoughtful analysis. It needed to be said. However, it also needs to be said that Numbers 5, 6, 8, and 9 are all False:
5) strong short-term economy - False. Ask anyone buying groceries, buying gas, paying car insurance, or just trying to keep a household running while maxing out credit cards month after month.
(6) strong long-term economy - False. We are $35.8 Trillion in debt ($271K per taxpayer). Anyone who claims our economy is strong is using tactics a'la Grigory Potemkin.
(8) no social unrest - False. The past four years have been nothing but escalating social unrest and division. Have you completely forgotten about vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and this type of fear-mongering and maligning: "We are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated – for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm." And, are you unaware of the increasing social unrest in cities and towns across the country caused by the border crisis, and the social unrest following the devastation of the Lahaina fire and Hurricane Helene?
(9) no scandal - False. Many people rightly consider this administration plagued by scandals despite the fact that it has been treated with kid gloves by the corporate media - so much so that the tone of the media's portrayal has consistently been: it's always sunny in the Biden-Harris Admin. The corporate media appears to be the weather vane upon which Lichtman relies regarding his interpretation of events.
(12) no incumbent charisma and (13) no challenger charisma - You say tomayto, I say tomahto... these keys are subjective and too easily informed by personal bias to be included in any objective analysis and should be removed.
5) Yes all true, the key is specifically defined as no recession though. I hedged and called it “partially false”
6) Fair enough, kind of just plays into definitionally what’s considered long-term. The mathematical calculation of the key is “true”, but I’d agree the debt is existential and it’s scary to think what could happen
8) I’d agree there’s a lot of social unrest, but is it at coronavirus levels of unrest or Vietnam war levels of unrest? Hence I rated it partially false
9) Same response as I made above, I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone normal who doesn’t follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by these things? While the 1st amendment violations should be national news, it just hasn’t been. It’s not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this.
12) and 13) I don’t know about these keys being subjective. The question is, is the candidate broadly appealing. And I can say definitely, given “Orange Man Bad” and “Comrade Kamala” neither are broadly charasmatic and inspirational.
Let us be clear. Whatever the Dems have devolved into, it is aligned with Election Fraud, multilayered. The points raised are not analytical. The only question: are there adequate safeguards in place? The answer is debatable.
The fake news echo chamber is in full panic mode...
Fake Scamdemic, fake virus, fake testing, lethal treatments, fake "selection", fake insurrection, constitutional assaults, fake "polls", normalizing gender confusion and insanity, all slow walked by fools, mostly Dem leaders... Not giving a pass to RINO's
Derangement Syndrome alert. The Beacon itself has capitulated and the richest guy on earth including the much loved RFK and his wealthy VP choice. Your cancer analogy is strong competition for the lowest level post to date.
Let's call it what it is....anyone supporting Trump/Vance/RFK and A list of low life billionaire boot licking cabinet wannabes is straight up looking to dismantle democracy and go whole hog Autocracy. When you authoritarian loving fans loose this one....Ba Bi folks! Pack up your trash and take Dear Leader and company to a country with you where you can really get into having that butt steak telling you what to do, while you praise him regularly. Oh yeah, don't expect Elon or Bezos to join you-they'll be back pedaling all the way to get them some US government contracts. And Paul, you have yet to describe what is "intelligent" about your support of Trump and Company??? I would love to hear the pros??
100% of your analysis is correct in a fair system. This isn't a fair system. The democrats run the elections system, the mainstream media, the DOJ, the FBI, the large cities, many state houses or senate, and have corrupt judges in their pockets. Even with a 60% or 70% popular vote by citizens, don't underestimate how many ballots they can manufacture for Kamala and how many illegal aliens they can get to vote and get away with it because they can cover all the evidence long enough. And even if Trump does win, they can still disrupt the system to prevent him from taking office. They have no intention of a peaceful transition of power. Their lives, their freedom, and their money depend on Kamala. They are in a war posture, which is why they print unlimited amounts of money for Ukraine. Only the military can save the Republic in that scenario. I pray to God I'm wrong.
Donald Trump will win because he romances the fallen angels of the American character.
Because he thinks of all Americans as suckers and losers vulnerable to even his most obvious cons.
Because he can seduce the son of one of America's greatest political heroes -- a man who gave his life in the fight against everything Trump stands for -- with false promises of influence.
Because when America tells Trump what it is, he listens.
Trump will certainly win the actual vote, but what concerns me is the manufactured vote. About that, we shall see. I've been working on the monitoring effort as much as I can. And as many have said, we gotta all turn out, and make the margin too big to rig. The recent endorsement of Muslim leaders who want peace, especially in the Middle East, constitutional rights honored, and sensible gender and ethical policies heightens my hope.
No major Biden administration scandal? Having and keeping in place an obviously dementia addled president doesn't qualify? A President so addled that he had to be replaced via a threat to invoke the 25th amendment? If he was addled enough to be threatened then he should have been replaced and Harris should be the president right now. Her failure to do this ultimately disqualifies her for the Presidency. "Hunter Biden saga"? No, it's the Joe Biden saga in that he used his son as bagman for his nefarious money making scams. Have you looked at the content from the laptop? 700,000 Ukranians are dead because of this, doesn't that qualify as a scandal? Your article shows just how low the bar has gone on scandalous behavior.
You point out the obvious, Bravo. Election fraud via Hunter Biden denial is the most egregious (arguably worse than the Russia election meddling fraud)
I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone who doesn’t normally follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by this? In my opinion, to the average Joe it’s just not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this. I’m sorry to say it, but I’ve literally never heard of anyone raise the points you’ve made other than people who pay close attention or are general Fox News listeners. The average independent Joe in a swing state who doesn’t pay regular attention but votes consistently, and is evaluating the big picture, in my view, does not view this at the same level of scandal.
Jay,
Nice analysis!
I am concerned that judging the economy on the basis of the term 'recession' misses what people are experiencing. I think most Americans are struggling and the DNC and aligned media are telling the public that things are fine and that they "don't understand how the economy works." It is not working for most of us.
Thanks Louis! I’d agree with that, hence why I rated the key partially false (despite the keys definition entirely being about us not technically being in recession right now).
Thank you for offering this analysis, I saw / read his original and really couldn’t decide what to make of it, your explanation clarified it
maybe there is a simple reason for you confusion?
inaccurate assessments are like that
Election fraud in 2020 and happening right now once again
I don’t see how you can say there is no scandal in the Biden administration. What about the blatant disrespect of our first amendment? That was a pretty big scandal. The president broke our first law of our land! How is he not being tried for treason?
Where the hell did Harris come from? We didn’t vote for her. But since the DNC is their own private company determined by the Supreme Court when they picked Hillary Clinton instead of the peoples’ pic of Bernie Sanders, they can do whatever they want. That doesn’t work for me or my country of We We The People!
Good questions. Answer: SOCIALISM AND FAKE CLIMATE INTEL, big bad money and blind leftist voters.
I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone normal who doesn’t follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by these things? While the 1st amendment violations should be national news, it just hasn’t been. It’s not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this.
You point out the obvious.
Some free thinker's are interested in knowing and study the natural history of
"movements" like the rather obscure KB.
What, at this point, is the purpose of the Beacon??
Not long ago it encouraged and facilitated the Derangement Syndrome while extrolling
the virtues of RFK. At least that was crystal clear if shortsided.
With half a foot in Dem party loyalties, the other half defaulting to DJT
due to RFK's capitulation. RFK supporters blind sided. Still most are asleep at the wheel.
The way too many injured and dead (estimated numbers vary) from the vaccine requirements aren’t a scandal? Just because the MSM don’t report it doesn’t mean it’s unknown.
Same response as I made above, I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone who doesn’t normally follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by this? While it’s absolutely real and MSM hasn’t reported any of it, it’s just not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this.
It's like Germans during WWII believing the death camps were just a rumor. But worse, because orders of magnitude more are affected, and not just certain groups. Democide intended for all but the "elite".
Bravo -- and one more who agrees:
As We Stare Down the Precipice, Final Ruminations -- On the eve of momentous change...what lies ahead of the turning point? Chaos or salvation? – Simplicius - Oct 30, 2024 – VERY GOOD
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/as-we-stare-down-the-precipice-final?r=byea&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Thanks Boris!!
Chaos most definitely is unavoidable regardless the outcome. Question is how much and for what length of time??
Thanks for providing this thoughtful analysis. It needed to be said. However, it also needs to be said that Numbers 5, 6, 8, and 9 are all False:
5) strong short-term economy - False. Ask anyone buying groceries, buying gas, paying car insurance, or just trying to keep a household running while maxing out credit cards month after month.
(6) strong long-term economy - False. We are $35.8 Trillion in debt ($271K per taxpayer). Anyone who claims our economy is strong is using tactics a'la Grigory Potemkin.
(8) no social unrest - False. The past four years have been nothing but escalating social unrest and division. Have you completely forgotten about vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and this type of fear-mongering and maligning: "We are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated – for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm." And, are you unaware of the increasing social unrest in cities and towns across the country caused by the border crisis, and the social unrest following the devastation of the Lahaina fire and Hurricane Helene?
(9) no scandal - False. Many people rightly consider this administration plagued by scandals despite the fact that it has been treated with kid gloves by the corporate media - so much so that the tone of the media's portrayal has consistently been: it's always sunny in the Biden-Harris Admin. The corporate media appears to be the weather vane upon which Lichtman relies regarding his interpretation of events.
(12) no incumbent charisma and (13) no challenger charisma - You say tomayto, I say tomahto... these keys are subjective and too easily informed by personal bias to be included in any objective analysis and should be removed.
Thanks for the response, interesting take!
5) Yes all true, the key is specifically defined as no recession though. I hedged and called it “partially false”
6) Fair enough, kind of just plays into definitionally what’s considered long-term. The mathematical calculation of the key is “true”, but I’d agree the debt is existential and it’s scary to think what could happen
8) I’d agree there’s a lot of social unrest, but is it at coronavirus levels of unrest or Vietnam war levels of unrest? Hence I rated it partially false
9) Same response as I made above, I tried to put myself in the shoes of someone normal who doesn’t follow politics day to day. Are they aware and outraged to the level of scandal by these things? While the 1st amendment violations should be national news, it just hasn’t been. It’s not a Watergate or Clinton-Lewinsky level scandal. That’s how I was evaluating this.
12) and 13) I don’t know about these keys being subjective. The question is, is the candidate broadly appealing. And I can say definitely, given “Orange Man Bad” and “Comrade Kamala” neither are broadly charasmatic and inspirational.
This is a compelling analysis!
Thanks Michael!!
seems you have garnished a successful treatment for Advanced Derangement Syndrome?
do share your treatment for the benefit of other Beaconites like the Sinner and Brevity
Who is to be our genocider-in-chief? What a question, what a choice.
Hamas has done a good job with the help of friends (e.g., Qatar, Iran, etc.)
more error of equicalency...
Even with the warning about the voting machines.
Let us be clear. Whatever the Dems have devolved into, it is aligned with Election Fraud, multilayered. The points raised are not analytical. The only question: are there adequate safeguards in place? The answer is debatable.
The fake news echo chamber is in full panic mode...
Fake Scamdemic, fake virus, fake testing, lethal treatments, fake "selection", fake insurrection, constitutional assaults, fake "polls", normalizing gender confusion and insanity, all slow walked by fools, mostly Dem leaders... Not giving a pass to RINO's
Prof. Lictman got several things completely wrong, and they were low level considerations.
In any case no mention of the widespread election Fraud in 2020 a rather consistent and deliberate
miss...
With even the rigged polls saying Trump is in the lead, there must be a really big actual margin.
The only fraud going on in elections is the BS fraud Trump brings. The guy is a cancer!
step up to the plate, in a contest of intelligence it will not end well
Derangement Syndrome alert. The Beacon itself has capitulated and the richest guy on earth including the much loved RFK and his wealthy VP choice. Your cancer analogy is strong competition for the lowest level post to date.
Let's call it what it is....anyone supporting Trump/Vance/RFK and A list of low life billionaire boot licking cabinet wannabes is straight up looking to dismantle democracy and go whole hog Autocracy. When you authoritarian loving fans loose this one....Ba Bi folks! Pack up your trash and take Dear Leader and company to a country with you where you can really get into having that butt steak telling you what to do, while you praise him regularly. Oh yeah, don't expect Elon or Bezos to join you-they'll be back pedaling all the way to get them some US government contracts. And Paul, you have yet to describe what is "intelligent" about your support of Trump and Company??? I would love to hear the pros??
Like he did in the first term? Who actually ran in a contested primary, and did not have his strongest challengers shut out from debate?
Excellent analysis and 🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽
Thanks Lisa!!
the analysis is mostly accurate but obfuscating
Election Fraud is front row and center as it remains since 2020
That little factoid is entirely ignored
100% of your analysis is correct in a fair system. This isn't a fair system. The democrats run the elections system, the mainstream media, the DOJ, the FBI, the large cities, many state houses or senate, and have corrupt judges in their pockets. Even with a 60% or 70% popular vote by citizens, don't underestimate how many ballots they can manufacture for Kamala and how many illegal aliens they can get to vote and get away with it because they can cover all the evidence long enough. And even if Trump does win, they can still disrupt the system to prevent him from taking office. They have no intention of a peaceful transition of power. Their lives, their freedom, and their money depend on Kamala. They are in a war posture, which is why they print unlimited amounts of money for Ukraine. Only the military can save the Republic in that scenario. I pray to God I'm wrong.
Donald Trump will win because he romances the fallen angels of the American character.
Because he thinks of all Americans as suckers and losers vulnerable to even his most obvious cons.
Because he can seduce the son of one of America's greatest political heroes -- a man who gave his life in the fight against everything Trump stands for -- with false promises of influence.
Because when America tells Trump what it is, he listens.
in strong competition to Camel's word salade is the Sinner's: romances the fallen angels of the American character
If ever there was an excellent example of Word Salad this one fits
Trump will certainly win the actual vote, but what concerns me is the manufactured vote. About that, we shall see. I've been working on the monitoring effort as much as I can. And as many have said, we gotta all turn out, and make the margin too big to rig. The recent endorsement of Muslim leaders who want peace, especially in the Middle East, constitutional rights honored, and sensible gender and ethical policies heightens my hope.