Pew Research Poll: 2024 Ripe for Independent Candidate

A majority of Americans are tired of the uniparty

A day before RFK Jr.’s likely announcement to run as an independent, Americans are fed up with the prevailing political climate and both major parties.

This is the message that comes across clearly from the latest Pew Research poll on the views of the electorate on national politics in the United States. 

It was published just days before Cornel West dropped out of the Green Party and declared himself running as an independent, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s likely declaration, also as an independent, on October 9 in Philadelphia. 

It was also published just days before a shocking blowup in the US government, with Speaker Kevin McCarthy ousted by a cast of fellow Republicans, two of whom are now vying for his seat.

As the Pew Research Center explains in a piece entitled “Americans’ Dismal Views of the Nation’s Politics,” 65% of Americans “say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics.” Summarizing its polling data, Pew explains:

Americans have long been critical of politicians and skeptical of the federal government. But today, Americans’ views of politics and elected officials are unrelentingly negative, with little hope of improvement on the horizon. Majorities say the political process is dominated by special interests, flooded with campaign cash and mired in partisan warfare. Elected officials are widely viewed as self-serving and ineffective. [...] There is widespread criticism of the three branches of government, both political parties, as well as political leaders and candidates for office.  

The faith Americans have in the federal government is the lowest it has been since the 1950s. As Pew explains, “just 16% of the public say they trust the federal government always or most of the time. While trust has hovered near historic lows for the better part of the last 20 years, today it stands among the lowest levels dating back nearly seven decades.”  

And the faith in the two major political parties is almost  as low, with “nearly three-in-ten (28%) express[ing] unfavorable views of both parties, the highest share in three decades of polling. And a comparable share of adults (25%) do not feel well-represented by either party.” 

Incredibly, “Just 4% of U.S. adults say the political system is working extremely or very well.” As Pew notes, “More than eight-in-ten Americans (86%) say the following is a good description of US politics: ‘Republicans and Democrats are more focused on fighting each other than on solving problems.’” 

Not surprisingly, Pew’s research further shows that Americans are increasingly looking outside the two major parties for solutions. As Pew explains, over a third of Americans (37%), and especially younger Americans, continue to be open to the possibility of having more political parties. 

It is important to note that this poll was taken just before the past weekend, in which lawmakers in Washington scrambled to temporarily prevent a government shutdown—a shutdown that would throw literally millions of federal employees out of work and without a salary in the midst of an economic climate that is already a challenge for most workers, who are confronting the worst inflation in years.    

Last weekend was marked by turmoil on Capitol Hill, as The New York Times explained: It was “full of twists and turns. As House Democrats stalled Mr. McCarthy’s plan on the floor to allow time to study it [the stopgap measure], fire alarms rang out in the Cannon House Office Building, forcing its evacuation. It was later determined that Representative Jamaal Bowman, Democrat of New York, had triggered the alarm, though he claimed it was inadvertent. ‘It was like riding a mechanical bull all week,’ said Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the No. 3 House Republican.” 

And, while a shutdown was prevented for only a  matter of weeks, the fight ended in the Republicans unseating their own leader—Speaker of the House McCarthy, who was punished for making the stopgap deal with the Democrats.

Thus, there is little doubt that the views Americans have about the political system and its two major political parties are even worse today than when the Pew Research poll was taken. Americans are ready for an independent candidate who is not beholden to the two ruling parties, to special interests, or to big money. Kennedy might be their man.

My own mother, a lifelong Republican, texted me after seeing the news that the Republicans were ousting the House Speaker, “We need RFK,” she wrote. “The Republicans have lost their minds.” The last time my mom voted for a non-Republican was in 1960 when she voted for John F. Kennedy.

The biggest obstacle to a successful independent run for president may be Americans’ pessimism about being able to break the two-party hold on politics. As the Pew research shows, “few Americans think a candidate independent of the Republican and Democratic parties will win a presidential election in the next 25 years. About two-thirds of adults (66%) say it is very (36%) or somewhat unlikely (30%) this will happen.” 

Such lack of hope in real political change—stoked daily by a press that is itself beholden to the two-party system and gives little oxygen to alternative candidates—can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And of course that is exactly what the powers-that-be desperately want: for the electorate to give into their hopelessness and give up on the possibility of a way out of the current political quagmire.  

But recent polling found that Americans have “an overwhelmingly favorable impression of independents.” That’s bright news indeed.