New Zogby Data Suggests a Trump Victory Fueled by Kennedy Supporters

By Adam Garrie, The Kennedy Beacon

Can Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters determine the result of the election?

That question has energized polling firm, John Zogby Strategies, to conduct a survey of likely voters across six major swing states, to better understand the voting intentions of the Kennedy Cohort in the 2024 presidential election. 

Zogby conducted his poll specifically in swing states because it’s widely believed that such states will play a major role in the election. His team got responses from over 4,000 people. 

“The Kennedy Cohort” is defined as former supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s now suspended presidential campaign, as well as those people who were considering supporting Kennedy when his campaign was active. 

The Zogby poll shows that 56% of the Kennedy Cohort has decided to throw support behind former president Trump. This represents a 22% margin of victory for Trump among the Kennedy cohort compared to the second nearest candidate, Vice President Harris. 

Zogby breaks down the Kennedy Cohort’s voting intentions by state:

The Zogby survey also found that among members of the Kennedy Cohort not yet voting for Trump, 35% are open to changing their vote to him by election day. This “persuadable” cohort is broken down by each swing state.

As the above graphic makes clear, swing state contests remain in a statistical dead-heat across virtually all mainstream polls. 

Among all identifiable demographic groups in the survey (e.g. race, sex, income, party affiliation, income) current non-Trump voters in the Kennedy Cohort were the most open to being persuaded towards changing their vote to Trump.

Will the persuadables actually vote Trump? No poll can say. But data from Zogby suggests they will. If they do, Trump will win. 

*Arizona (n = 701, MOE +/- 3.8), Georgia (n = 802, +/- 3.5), Michigan (n = 785, MOE +/- 3.5), Nevada (n = 501, +/- 4/5), Pennsylvania (n = 915, +/- 3.3), and Wisconsin (n = 690, MOE +/- 3.8). The polls were fielded September 23 – 26, 2024. Subgroups have higher error margins than the overall samples in each state.