Kennedy Support Surges in South Carolina

As does hope for a Primary win

All eyes are on South Carolina. 

As the first state scheduled to hold its primary for the 2024 presidential election, South Carolina could be key for deciding the Democratic nominee. After holding six town hall meetings across the state, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is seeing his popularity surge as his campaign attracts large, enthusiastic crowds in Charleston, Orangeburg, Sumter, Greenville, Florence, and Spartanburg.

The current primary schedule starts with South Carolina on Feb. 3, 2024. New Hampshire and Nevada follow on Feb. 6.  

Already in the first week of August, before Kennedy had made his latest South Carolina stops, a Zogby poll found that, in a three-way election, Kennedy could get 24% of the vote, while Joe Biden might get 55%, and Marianne Williamson 5%. According to that same poll, 16% of South Carolinians remain undecided.

The largely Republican state of South Carolina was only recently given the chance to vote first in the Democratic primaries, displacing the swing state of New Hampshire, which had held that honor since 1920. In February 2023, at President Biden’s request, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) changed the primary schedule for the 2024 election cycle. In 2020, Biden won the South Carolina primary, but came in fifth in New Hampshire.  

Black voters made up over half of the voters in the state’s Democratic presidential primary in 2020, according to a CNN exit poll. Making South Carolina the first-in-the-nation primary state could amplify the voices of Black voters across the country.

However, the DNC’s decision to shift attention to South Carolina so early in the primary could backfire for Biden’s supporters. The same Zogby poll that shows Kennedy support increasing even more in South Carolina compared to his national numbers, also shows that Kennedy has significant support on issues crucial to Black voters. 50% of respondents agreed that “Covid lockdowns permanently closed millions of small businesses and disproportionately impacted African Americans.”

At his first campaign stop in Charleston, Kennedy spoke mainly about economic issues, such as food prices, energy costs and credit card debt, as well as skyrocketing house prices. “In the last two years, the price of housing has gone from $250,000 average, to $400,000,” Kennedy said in an interview with a local MSNBC news affiliate. “Interest rates have gone up 20 percent, and we don’t need to have that happen. There are ways that the federal government can help people without driving up the debt.”  

Since Biden and Kennedy declared their plans to run in 2024, both The Washington Post and The New York Times have expressed concern that Black voters, dissatisfied with Biden’s performance, mainly on economic issues, may not turn out to vote for Biden in strong numbers. 

 In an interview with Dan McCue of The Well News, Kennedy’s campaign manager, Dennis Kucinich, admitted, “We think the election is going to be won here. We’re going to break this election open here in South Carolina.” Kucinich went on to explain that Biden’s campaign had been failing in 2020 until he found support in South Carolina. Kucinich added, “People here know what they did for Biden and now feel like he’s taken them for granted.”  Kucinich further noted that Kennedy “is going to represent everybody. He’s for all the people.”  

The Zogby poll also examined Biden’s and Kennedy’s messages and approval ratings and found that, when compared this way, Biden’s approval drops to 46%, while Kennedy’s increases to 36%. This first primary could be a significant prognosticator: since 1992, with one exception, South Carolinians have picked the nominee that went on to secure the nomination at the Democratic National Convention.   

The Zogby poll, which was commissioned by American Values 2024, a SuperPAC supporting Kennedy, shows that Biden’s support appears to be slipping from under him as Kennedy’s momentum builds.

Traditionally, before any primary, Iowa holds the first caucus of the election season—a caucus is not, like a primary, an election open to all voters of a party, but a number of party meetings at which delegates are elected. But, for the 2024 election, Iowa’s Democratic party caucus has been postponed to March. Some Iowan Democrats are bucking against the DNC’s decision to schedule their caucus later.

According to a state law, New Hampshire is required to hold its primary first in the nation. State officials must decide among several options. They can try to change the state law to be in compliance with the DNC; they can ignore the DNC and schedule the Republican and Democrat primaries first at the end of January; or they can hold an early Republican primary, per state law, but schedule the Democratic primary later, per the DNC schedule, going against state law. The situation is difficult. 

If Iowa and New Hampshire choose to defy the DNC’s decision and hold their contests early, Biden’s name might not appear on those states’ respective ballots. As Fox News puts it, the DNC-favored candidate might not want to take part in an election that is “unsanctioned” by the DNC.  Conveniently, if Biden’s chances of doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire are low, not appearing on the ballots might spare him embarrassing losses in two early voting states.  

All of these DNC maneuvers, which may be frustrating would-be Biden voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, may drive them toward Kennedy, whose campaign is focused on connecting with people and building a movement, not trying to use the election system to his advantage.