At the Polls

Kennedy Solid, Biden Slipping

Two new polls show support for President Joe Biden slipping, while Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s support remains steady.

Released on August 7, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found that most Americans think President Joe Biden should not run again. 65 percent of all respondents said that Biden is too old and he should not seek re-election. 

Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Echelon Insights found Kennedy and Biden neck-and-neck as far as their favorability.

The Reuters/ Ipsos poll was conducted between July 28 and August 1 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. A sample of 2,009 adults was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 859 Democrats, 731 Republicans, and 255 independents. 

The poll specifically asked respondents who they would back if Joe Biden chose not to run for re-election. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., was the most popular option: fifteen-percent thought Kennedy should be the candidate. He was followed by Vice President, Kamala Harris. with 12 percent support. 

If the election were held today, 35 percent said that they would vote for Donald Trump. Biden had 33 percent. 

President Biden's poor approval rating was due to Americans' views on the economy and their personal well-being. 

The top issues for Americans, according to this new poll, are inflation or increasing costs, unemployment, economic inequality, political extremism or polarization and government budget and debt. A total of 69 percent said that these issues have gotten worse during the past five years. 

Most Americans, 56 percent, believe President Biden and his administration are falling short in economic investment and in addressing economic inequality (52 percent). While 80 percent are familiar with high inflation since 2022, only 46 percent know about Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. 25 percent said that they have never heard of it. 

Overall, 40 percent approved of Biden’s job performance, while 55 percent disapproved. The majority of respondents, 52 percent, thought that Biden and his administration haven’t done enough to promote American Values. 

Thirty-four percent thought that Biden has done too much promoting liberal values. 67 percent said that Biden and his administration haven’t done enough to unify the country. 

The Echelon Insights Poll 

Conducted from July 24 - July 27, the Echelon Insights poll measured popularity and support. It found Kennedy’s popularity at 40 percent, with President Joe Biden at 41 percent.

However, Kennedy was perceived as unpopular only by 31 percent, while Biden was seen as unpopular by 51 percent.

Another positive development for Kennedy is that his favorability has risen amongst Republican voters, according to a survey by Morning Consult.

The attraction of Republican voters to Kennedy reveals a compelling narrative about how the other Democratic candidates have contributed to polarization and struggled to achieve unity.

As of August 7, FiveThirtyEight, a website that aggregates polls and computes averages, reported Biden's overall support at 64.3 percent and Kennedy's at 15.2 percent. Notably, Kennedy's support has increased since July.

The Echelon poll was conducted online. The sample was weighted to population benchmarks for registered voters and the 2024 likely electorate, based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, party and past primary participation. It also took the 2020 presidential vote and adjusted it to calculate the likely 2024 turnout.

The support for Kennedy in this poll was 16 percent. Biden’s support was 62 percent.

Since the early polls in April, Kennedy’s support has remained roughly the same. The Fox News poll collected on April 21-24 was the most favorable for Kennedy, showing 19 percent support for him.

Since then, the average support for Kennedy in the polls has hovered between 13-17 percent.

On the Republican side, support for Ron DeSantis – the second most popular candidate after Donald Trump – has gone down.

In the Echelon Insights poll, DeSantis’s support was at 16 percent. In a Quinnipiac University poll in mid-July, he was at 25 percent. In a Fox News poll in February, he’s support was at 28 percent. When DeSantis's support has gone down, Trump has gained more support.

This is not the case with Democratic primaries, where Biden’s support has remained solid, but his unfavorability rates have gone up. In mid-June, Biden was found unfavorable by 41 percent in the Economist/YouGov poll. The same poll found Kennedy only 14 percent unfavorable. 

Kennedy’s highest favorability rating was 47 percent in the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, higher than any of Biden’s ratings. 

While Biden is not a popular candidate for re-election, not even amongst the Democrats, the Democratic voters have repeatedly expressed their worry about Biden’s capability to efficiently govern a second term.

In a Suffolk University/USA Today poll in early June, 80 percent hoped that there would be Democratic primary debates. Only 16 percent said that debates are not necessary.

In a New York Times/Siena College poll in late July, half of the Democratic voters said that the party should nominate someone else than Biden to be the candidate. 

His age was the most significant factor, 39 percent said that he is too old. Another 20 percent stated the reason is his poor job performance.

In addition, recent polls find Biden neck-on-neck with Trump. The New York Times/Siena College poll found them both at 43 percent. In the Echelon Insights poll, Biden got 45 percent support while Trump got 44. 

Biden was even close with DeSantis: if he were the Republican nominee, DeSantis would get 41 percent of the votes and Biden would get 44. 

The most depressing poll from the Democratic point of view is a Premise poll in late July, which found Biden at 34 percent and Trump at 41. 

The close race between Biden and Trump could be attributed to voters' dissatisfaction with both candidates.

A Saint Anselm’s College poll in late June asked: “In your view, will a 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump represent a match-up between the best that each party has to offer voters or a clear sign that the party system is broken?”

An overwhelming 83 percent answered that the system is broken.